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MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, March 28

MNI BRIEF: Japan's Trimmed Mean Slows To 2.7% - BOJ

MNI BRIEF: Impact of AT1 On Japanese Banks Is Limited - Suzuki

MNI: ITALY MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 105.1

MNI: ITALY MAR BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 110.2

Manufacturing Sentiment Edges Down on Softer Outlooks

MNI BRIEF: FDIC To Conduct Review Of Deposit Insurance

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr: Will Use All Tools To Keep Banks Safe

(RPT)MNI INTERVIEW:Ex-FDIC Chair Downplays Bank Contagion Risk

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Pressured In Early Trade After Curve Bear Flattened On Friday

US TSYS
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TYH3 deals at 114-08+, -0-05, testing Friday's base.

  • The latest piece from WSJ Fed whisperer Timiraos has noted that "fresh signs of a hot U.S. labor market leave the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting next month and to signal another increase is likely after that." That, coupled with regional reaction to Friday's NFP print, is outweighing Sino-U.S. tension.
  • Cash Tsys closed 6-18bp cheaper on Friday, as the curve bear flattened.
  • A surge in job gains, alongside the the unemployment rate reaching its lowest level since 1969 pressured Tsys.
  • Losses extended as the ISM Services survey printed its largest increase since June 2020.
  • OIS markets now see the terminal rate above 5%, with ~25bps of hikes priced into the March meeting.
  • SF Fed President Daly was the first Fed speaker after the blackout period ended, calling the NFP print a “Wow” number. She reiterated themes observed in previous communique i.e. it is too early to declare victory against inflation, noting she is prepared to do more if it is needed.
  • We have a thin calendar in Asia-Pac today with rising geopolitical tensions and the fallout of the Nikkei report re: BoJ Deputy Gov Amamiya being approached to head up the central bank likely to dominate. Further out, lower tier data is all that we get on the NY docket.
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TYH3 deals at 114-08+, -0-05, testing Friday's base.

  • The latest piece from WSJ Fed whisperer Timiraos has noted that "fresh signs of a hot U.S. labor market leave the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting next month and to signal another increase is likely after that." That, coupled with regional reaction to Friday's NFP print, is outweighing Sino-U.S. tension.
  • Cash Tsys closed 6-18bp cheaper on Friday, as the curve bear flattened.
  • A surge in job gains, alongside the the unemployment rate reaching its lowest level since 1969 pressured Tsys.
  • Losses extended as the ISM Services survey printed its largest increase since June 2020.
  • OIS markets now see the terminal rate above 5%, with ~25bps of hikes priced into the March meeting.
  • SF Fed President Daly was the first Fed speaker after the blackout period ended, calling the NFP print a “Wow” number. She reiterated themes observed in previous communique i.e. it is too early to declare victory against inflation, noting she is prepared to do more if it is needed.
  • We have a thin calendar in Asia-Pac today with rising geopolitical tensions and the fallout of the Nikkei report re: BoJ Deputy Gov Amamiya being approached to head up the central bank likely to dominate. Further out, lower tier data is all that we get on the NY docket.