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PREVIEW: 10-year Portugal

EGB SYNDICATION
  • Portugal will come to the market in the "near future" to hold a syndicated transaction for its new 10-year benchmark, due to mature on 16 July 2032. We expect the transaction to take place today.
  • Portugal held two syndications in 2021 (for new 10/30-year OTs) and this will be the second syndication of 2022 after the launch of the 20-year 1.15% Apr-42 OT on 12 January. We expect this is probably the final syndication of the year.
  • Market colour: The current 10-year benchmark, the 0.30% Oct-31 OT, is trading at a spread of around 93bp to the 0% Aug-31 Bund. This is close to the top of the 75-95bp range we have traded in since early February and was not helped yesterday by concerns over the French election, which helped lead to a widening of spreads across the board.
  • Expected spread: Given the spread for the current benchmark, we would expect the new Jul-32 OT to launch at a spread of at least 100bp to the 0% Feb-32 Bund.
  • Expected size: We expect the transaction size to be E3-4bln.
  • Timing: Books for Portuguese syndications tend to open around 8:00, with a possible update around 9:30 before the spread is set between 10:00-10:55. Final terms for the last three syndications have varied between 11:00-12:20. Pricing for both of the 2021 syndications was around 15:00 but the 20-year syndication held in January saw pricing closer to 15:45. All times are UK / local.
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