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PREVIEW:  Next week's Data.

CHINA DATA


  • Next week’s data on pricing for August will provide insight as to the immediacy of the problem that the government faces in a slowing economy.
  • Monday will see the release of both PPI and CPI. PPI market consensus is for an increasing contraction to -1.4% following last month’s contraction of -0.8%. July saw, with the exception of Mining and Raw Materials, a contraction across all other segments.
  • CPI is also released where at present the market consensus is for an August rise of 0.7% versus a prior rise of 0.5%. Whilst remaining in positive territory, a CPI print such as this is not reflective of an economy growing at the growth rates desired by the government.
  • CPI has remained tepid at best for over a year now and the counteractive policies implemented thus far have failed to arrest this trend.
  • Monday will also see Aggregate Financing / Net New CNY loan data. Whilst the surveys suggest that these should see growth, it is important to note that most of this growth is seasonal and supplemented by a post Plenum uptick in spending by the government.
  • Tuesday will see trade data where a modest decline in exports is expected, reflecting a softening of demand in the region. Export controls or sanctions from the US are slowing exports but not dramatically at this stage, due to the global reliance on Chinese goods. Imports though will be a key release. Imports are projected to decline significantly. This is likely more reflective of the poor sentiment for Chinese consumers who are impacted by the ongoing malaise in the property sector.
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