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PREVIEW: Q3 GDP Seen +47% Annualized Before Q4 Near Stall

CANADA DATA
  • MNI economist consensus is for annualized GDP growth of 47% following the record 39% decline in Q2 amid pandemic lockdown (See: https://tinyurl.com/yy3mlel6)
  • ING says even a big growth pickup in Q3 will leave output ~5% below pre-pandemic level
  • Momentum won't last: more recent health restrictions are seen slowing Q4 GDP growth to around 1-3%, and oil firms are struggling with cutbacks on global oversupply fears
  • Watch for consumer spending and clues on income after relief checks left households on balance with almost CAD100 billion of cash
  • Inventories may add another push after supply chain disruptions lowered stockpiles by CAD38b in Q2
MNI Ottawa Bureau | +1 613-314-9647 | greg.quinn@marketnews.com
MNI Ottawa Bureau | +1 613-314-9647 | greg.quinn@marketnews.com

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