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Price Developments Point To Higher Inflation Expectations


The Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations series for November will print at 11:00 AEDT. It held steady in October at 5.4% after peaking at 6.7% in June. But it could rise again this month, as there have been a number of factors that point to higher inflation.

  • Q3 CPI data printed generally higher and the RBA revised up its inflation trajectory across its forecast horizon.
  • There has been a lot of publicity surrounding the Commonwealth Government’s projected 56% increase in power prices over the next two years and also around the fact that recent flooding will push up fresh food prices.
  • In addition, petrol prices rose 7.8% m/m in October, as the fuel levy returned to its previous rate, and the 6% weekly rise at the start of November brought them 7.7% above October. Big moves in petrol prices have tended to impact the direction of inflation expectations this year (see chart below).
MI inflation expectations vs petrol prices

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Australian Institute of Petroleum

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