Free Trial

Price Developments Point To Higher Inflation Expectations

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations series for November will print at 11:00 AEDT. It held steady in October at 5.4% after peaking at 6.7% in June. But it could rise again this month, as there have been a number of factors that point to higher inflation.

  • Q3 CPI data printed generally higher and the RBA revised up its inflation trajectory across its forecast horizon.
  • There has been a lot of publicity surrounding the Commonwealth Government’s projected 56% increase in power prices over the next two years and also around the fact that recent flooding will push up fresh food prices.
  • In addition, petrol prices rose 7.8% m/m in October, as the fuel levy returned to its previous rate, and the 6% weekly rise at the start of November brought them 7.7% above October. Big moves in petrol prices have tended to impact the direction of inflation expectations this year (see chart below).
MI inflation expectations vs petrol prices

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Australian Institute of Petroleum

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.