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Price of Russia Piped Gas to China Rises On Lagged Oil Link

NATURAL GAS

Gazprom gas sales to China increased by more than 40% on the year in the first half of 2023 reflecting higher oil prices in mid-2022 according to Energy Intelligence based on the Chinese customs data.

  • Assuming Power of Siberia pipeline exports slightly exceeded contracted volumes agreed at 22bcm for 2023 the average price in H1 was close to 300$/mcm from 210$/mcm a year ago.
  • The 38bcm/yr Gazprom gas supply deal with China National Petroleum Corp is allegedly oil linked with a 10% slope and nine-month lag and therefore would currently reflect the oil price spike above $100/bbl last year.
  • Gazprom’s average price in Europe fell to 530$/mcm in H1 2023, down from above 1,000$/mcm for the full year 2022.
  • The marginal cost of Gazprom’s supplies to Europe is estimated at around 120$/mcm, including the 30% export duty, with Power of Siberia at 170$/mcm.


Source: Energy Intelligence

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