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Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Gilt Futures Remain Present

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, Bund futures ended last week’s session on a softer note despite Friday’s bounce from the low of the day. Weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper short-term reversal, which would open the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, highlighting the short-term bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 138.84, the Dec 27 high and a bull trigger. Initial resistance is 136.26, the 20-day EMA.
  • Gilt futures started the year on a softer note. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA suggesting scope for a bearish continuation near-term. Note that the contract has also traded through 100.36, the lower band of a MA envelope. This has exposed 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

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