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Price Signal Summary: Bearish Cycle Extends And Probes 20.00

LATAM FX
  • The USDMXN downtrend remains intact and the pair continues to weaken. The USD has arrived at (and probed) the 20.00 handle, having recently breached 20.1577, the Feb 23 low. The break of this support has strengthened bearish conditions and the focus is on 19.8486, the Sep 13, 2021 low. Resistance to watch is at 20.5417, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDBRL started the week on a softer note and has maintained this week’s bearish momentum. The pair cleared 4.9846 on Monday , the Mar 11 low and an important bear trigger. Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 4.8934, the Jun 25, 2021 low. Initial resistance is at $5.0276, the 20-day EMA.
    • Note that the monthly chart highlights that March (unless we see a bounce) looks like it will be a 3rd consecutive down month. Price is sitting right on the lowest point - 4.8187, Jun 2020 low - of the broad range that has dominated since the peak in May 2020. A clear break of this support (it has been probed) would reinforce bearish conditions and also highlight a significant medium-term reversal.
  • USDCLP trend conditions are bearish and the pair is trading lower. Firm resistance is at 832.75, the Feb 7 high. The bear trigger lies at 783.51, Feb 23 low. A break would expose 783.23, 50.0% of the May - Dec 2021 upleg ahead of the 780.00 handle initially.
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