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Price Signal Summary - Bonds Under Pressure Once Again

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis are holding onto recent gains. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4390.87 today. This is an important short-term pivot resistance and a clear break is required to signal scope for a stronger bounce. Key support and the bear trigger is at 4260.00, the Oct 1 low. EUROSTOXX 50 contract bounced from Wednesday's low. Resistance is at 4095.20, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger is this week's low of 3949.50.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains bearish and Wednesday resumed its downtrend, confirming a recent bear flag formation. The focus is on 1.1493 next, 50.0% of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase. GBPUSD remains vulnerable despite the recent strong corrective bounce. A short-term pivot resistance has been defined at 1.3648, Oct 5 high where a clear break is required to instead signal scope for a stronger bounce. The recent corrective pullback in USDJPY found support at 110.82 on Oct 4. The focus is on the bull trigger at 112.08, Sep 30 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 112.23/40, the Feb 20 and 24 highs.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating. The yellow metal remains in a downtrend and attention is on the $1690.6, Aug 9 low and bear trigger. Note though that the Sep 30 price pattern - a bullish engulfing candle - highlights the potential for a stronger corrective bounce. A continuation higher would open $1787.4, Sep 22 high. Support is at $1721.7, Sep 29 low. WTI uptrend remains intact and the focus is on the $80.00 psychological hurdle. Support to watch is $74.96, Oct 7 low and key near-term level.
  • In the FI space, the primary trend is unchanged and remains down. Recent Bund futures weakness has exposed 169.01 next, 1.764 projection of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing. Resistance is seen at 170.55, Oct 4 high. Gilt futures remain heavy. The focus is on 123.79, 1.764 projection of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing. Treasuries have traded through 131-07, Sep 28 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 131-01 next, 1.382 projection of the Aug 4 - 11 - 17 price swing.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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