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Price Signal Summary - Bullish Pennant Formation In USDJPY

OUTLOOK
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain soft and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Futures appear set to extend last week's bear leg and attention is on 3819.54, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 Aug 16 bull leg. A break would open 3741.75, the Jul 14 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have started the week on a bearish note, extending last week’s bearish price action. The latest reversal lower has opened 3423.00, the Sep 5 low and a key short-term support.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable. The pair continues to trade inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high and attention is on the bear trigger at 0.9864, the Sep 6 low. The channel top intersects at 1.0104 and marks a key resistance. A clear break of the channel top is required to signal a short-term reversal. The GBPUSD trend needle still points south. Last week’s break of support at 1.1406, the Sep 7 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 1.1324 next, 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing. USDJPY is consolidating and this pause in the uptrend appears to be a bullish pennant formation. This reinforces the broader bullish theme and attention is on the bull trigger at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open 145.28 and 146.03, the 2.618 and 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. Initial firm support is at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 140.97.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend and last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this theme - price cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early March. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low. In the Oil space, the WTI futures outlook is bearish and the contract is trading lower today. The recent break of support at $85.37, Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8. The focus is on $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. Firm resistance is at $91.20, the 50-day EMA.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Sights are on the 142.00 handle next.
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