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Price Signal Summary - Bund Downtrend Resumes Exposing Key Support At 140.67

OUTLOOK
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain soft despite yesterday’s bounce. The breach of 3900.00 last week, the Sep 7 low, strengthened bearish conditions and signals scope for weakness towards 3819.54 next, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 bull leg. A break would open 3741.75, the Jul 14 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures started the week on a bearish note, extending last week’s bearish price action before finding support. The recovery is considered corrective and bearish conditions are likely to prevail. The latest reversal lower has opened 3423.00, the Sep 5 low and a key short-term support.
  • In FX, the EURUSD outlook remains bearish. The pair continues to trade inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high and attention is on the bear trigger at 0.9864, Sep 6 low. The channel top intersects at 1.0096 and marks a key resistance. A channel breakout is required to signal a short-term reversal. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish. The recent break of support at 1.1406, Sep 7 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 1.1324 next, 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing. USDJPY is consolidating and this pause in the uptrend appears to be a bullish pennant formation. This pattern reinforces the broader bullish theme and attention is on the bull trigger at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open 145.28 and 146.03, the 2.618 and 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. Initial firm support is at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 141.19.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend and last Thursday’s bearish extension reinforces this theme - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and this confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early March. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low. In the Oil space, the WTI futures outlook is bearish despite Monday’s recovery from the day low. The recent break of support at $85.37, Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8. This has opened $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. Firm resistance is at $90.99, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to alter the picture.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and today’s extension lower has confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started early August. The 142.00 handle has been cleared and sights are on the next major support at 140.67, the Jun 16 low (cont), ahead of the psychological 140.00 handle. Gilts remain vulnerable and futures have touched a fresh trend low of 104.33 today. Attention is on 103.87, 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing.
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