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Price Signal Summary - Corrective Bounce In Gilts Extends

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, a bear cycle in Bund futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. The latest recovery from 128.73, the May 31 high, appears to be a correction. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.03, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a reversal lower would expose 128.73, and a break of this level would resume the downtrend and open 128.42, the Nov 1 ‘23 low (cont).
  • Gilt futures have traded higher today as the contract extends the recovery 95.33, the May 29 low. For now, gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 95.87, the May 1 low. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 95.17 next, a 2.382 projection of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing. Resistance to watch is 97.44, May 23 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 98.12, the 21 high.
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