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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Gilts Still In Play

OUTLOOK
BundesbankCentral Bank NewsCEEMEAEurozoneGermanyBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • In the FI space, the Jan 15 rally in Bund futures highlighted a short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is also allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. A continuation higher would open 132.41, the 20-day EMA. The medium-term trend is unchanged, it remains bearish. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low. A break of it would resume the downtrend.
  • The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight a corrective phase and if correct, signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 91.55. This average has been breached, a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger retracement, towards 92.75, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. First support lies at 90.68, the Jan 16 low.
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  • In the FI space, the Jan 15 rally in Bund futures highlighted a short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is also allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. A continuation higher would open 132.41, the 20-day EMA. The medium-term trend is unchanged, it remains bearish. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low. A break of it would resume the downtrend.
  • The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight a corrective phase and if correct, signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 91.55. This average has been breached, a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger retracement, towards 92.75, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. First support lies at 90.68, the Jan 16 low.