MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 13

MNI BRIEF: China Has Been In Communication With U.S. On Trade

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Customs Clearance

MNI BRIEF: China Consumer Satisfaction Up

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY68.6 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1728 Thurs; -0.64% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE JAN IP +0.8% M/M, +0% Y/Y

MNI: SWEDEN FINAL FEB CPIF +2.9% Y/Y

MNI: US FEB TREASURY BUDGET -$307.0B

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

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MNI US CPI Preview: Residual Concerns

Core CPI is seen accelerating in January, but eyes will be on broader metrics to gauge ongoing inflation trends.
USInflation InsightMarketsStoryNorth America

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Consensus sees core CPI inflation accelerating to a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M (unrounded 0.29%) in January after what was, for now, seen as a slightly softer than expected 0.225% M/M in December.
  • Headline is expected only a touch stronger, at 0.32% M/M for a pullback from 0.39% owing to a sequential slowing in energy prices vs stronger food prices amidst a serious bird flu outbreak.
  • There’s a good chance core CPI ‘surprises’ a tenth higher with 3.2% Y/Y owing to rounding, whilst headline CPI is widely expected to print 2.9% Y/Y.
  • In a change from last year when there was a separate release, this year sees the simultaneous release of new seasonal factors for the past five years (SA series will be revised up to Dec 2024 but with no change in the underlying NSA data) as well as new weights to reflect 2023 consumption.
  • These annual tweaks make it additionally hard to forecast January, a month that is already challenging as analysts grapple with the extent to which “residual seasonality” will have an impact this month. It’s a month that will be watched closely in both SA and NSA terms to get a sense of start-of-year price increases.
  • Core PCE estimates are currently seen very close to core CPI estimates, at an average 0.28% M/M, with the largest sequential drivers we’ve seen for core CPI confined to items that don’t translate into PCE. Base effects should start to more earnestly lower the core PCE Y/Y this month. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Consensus sees core CPI inflation accelerating to a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M (unrounded 0.29%) in January after what was, for now, seen as a slightly softer than expected 0.225% M/M in December.
  • Headline is expected only a touch stronger, at 0.32% M/M for a pullback from 0.39% owing to a sequential slowing in energy prices vs stronger food prices amidst a serious bird flu outbreak.
  • There’s a good chance core CPI ‘surprises’ a tenth higher with 3.2% Y/Y owing to rounding, whilst headline CPI is widely expected to print 2.9% Y/Y.
  • In a change from last year when there was a separate release, this year sees the simultaneous release of new seasonal factors for the past five years (SA series will be revised up to Dec 2024 but with no change in the underlying NSA data) as well as new weights to reflect 2023 consumption.
  • These annual tweaks make it additionally hard to forecast January, a month that is already challenging as analysts grapple with the extent to which “residual seasonality” will have an impact this month. It’s a month that will be watched closely in both SA and NSA terms to get a sense of start-of-year price increases.
  • Core PCE estimates are currently seen very close to core CPI estimates, at an average 0.28% M/M, with the largest sequential drivers we’ve seen for core CPI confined to items that don’t translate into PCE. Base effects should start to more earnestly lower the core PCE Y/Y this month. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

Keep reading...Show less