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Bullish Outlook

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Trend Needle Still Points South

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MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis are under pressure this morning and price is once again trading below the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support lies at 4572.75, the Jan 10 low. A break of this support would once again highlight a bearish risk and expose 4520.25, the Dec 20 low. Initial resistance is seen at 4693.14, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are approaching the key short-term support at 4216.50, Jan 10 low and price is also back below the 50-day EMA. A break of 4216.50 would once again highlight a bearish threat and confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jan 5. This would expose 4161.80, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • In FX, the recent EURUSD break higher resulted in a range breakout, through 1.1386, Dec 31 high and a breach of the top of the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1, 2021 high. This suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery towards 1.1514 next, Nov 5 low. Support is seen at 1.1386 that has been probed but for now remains intact. The 20-day EMA, as a support, intersects at 1.1358. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bullish. Attention is on the 200-dma, at 1.3737. This average has been probed, a clear break would open 1.3835, Oct 20 high. Support to watch is at 1.3542, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY remains above Friday's low of 113.49. Friday’s pattern is a doji candle - a bullish reversal - and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. A resumption of gains would open 115.68, Jan 11 high. For bears, sub 113.49 levels would reinstate bearish pressure.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains below recent highs. The short-term outlook is bullish and attention is on resistance at $1831.9, Jan 3 high where a break would open $1849.1, the Nov 22 high. The base of the bull channel drawn from the Aug 9, 2021 low intersects at $1788.2 and is a key support. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the contract has rallied once again today. This opens $87.86, the 2.00 projection of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing.
  • In the FI space, the Bund futures remain vulnerable and have today probed key support at 169.34, Oct 29 low. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 169.08, 3.618 projection of the Dec 8 - 20 price swing. 171.00 is resistance, Jan 13 high. Gilts remain in a downtrend and the recent recovery has been a correction. The focus is on 122.66 next, 3.764 projection of the Dec 8 - 16 - 20 price swing. Treasuries are down sharply today and have confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This opens 127-07 next, 2.236 projection of the Dec 20 - 29 - 31 price swing.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-3805 | taso.anastasiou.ext@marketnews.com

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