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Price Signal Summary - EURCHF Cracks Key Pivot Point

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis have today delivered another all-time high - 4723.50 - but the contract has also faced some resistance. From a trend perspective, the outlook remains bullish and any short-term pullback is likely corrective in nature. Bulls eye, 4746.68 next, the 1.618 projection of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing. Watch support at 4625.25, the Nov 10 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact however, the contract is facing selling pressure this morning. Dips are considered corrective and the support to watch is 4307.10, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 4420.80, 1.382 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend. The pair has this week traded below 1.1300, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. A clear break lower and continued bearish follow through would open 1.1222, 1.618 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing. The recent break in GBPUSD of 1.3412, Sep 29 low, opens 1.3334 next, 1.00 projection of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing. Recent gains are considered corrective, initial resistance is at 1.3542, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY has breached resistance at 114.70, the Oct 20 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and opens 115.51 next, the Mar 10, 2017 high. A concern for bulls is Wednesday's bearish engulfing candle. A deeper pullback would expose key support at 112.73, Sep 9 low. EURJPY is under pressure and the cross has resumed its slide. The sharp move lower has exposed 128.33, Oct 6 low and the key support at 127.93, Sep 22 low. EURCHF has cleared 1.0505, the May 14, 2020 low. The break (potentially) exposes 1.0397 next, the Jul 15, 2015 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating but remains bullish. Attention is on $1877.7, Jun 14 high and $1903.8, Jun 8 high. WTI has traded through key short-term support at $77.23, Nov 4 low. The break suggests scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards $75.02 next, 38.2% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally .
  • In the FI space, Bund futures have rallied sharply as bullish conditions are reinforced further. Today's breach of 171.95 - the 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off opens 172.48 next, Sep 9 high. Gilts also maintain a firmer tone and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The resumption of strength suggests potential for a climb towards 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial support has been defined at 125.40, Nov 17 low.

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