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Bearish Focus

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  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis (U1) are unchanged and still consolidating close to the all-time high of 4228.25 May 10 high. This remains the key resistance and the trigger that will confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial support is at 4165.25, Jun 3 low.
  • In the FX space, EURUSD failed to hold onto yesterday's gains and still appears vulnerable. The focus is on 1.2108, the 50-day EMA and 1.2104,Jun 4 low. GBPUSD is softer and remains below 1.4248, Jun 1 high. A deeper pullback would expose 1.4006, May 13 low. Note the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.4028 and also represents a key support level. Recent USDJPY weakness resulted in a probe of support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. A clear break lower would threaten the recent uptrend and expose 108.56, May 25 low. 110.33, the Jun 4 high is the bull trigger.
  • On the commodity front, Gold key short-term directional triggers are unchanged at; $1916.6, the Jun 1 and bull trigger and $1856.2, the Jun 4 low. Trend conditions in oil remain bullish and price has traded higher this week. Recent Brent (Q1) gains have opened $73.00 next, a round number resistance. WTI (N1) similarly has cleared resistance to hit new cycle highs, breaching the $70.00 psychological level in the process. The focus is on $70.92, 2.764 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
  • Within FI, Bunds (U1) have this week topped the 50-day EMA at 172.00 and trend structures appear bullish. The focus is on 173.32 next, 76.4% of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off. Gilts (U1) traded higher yesterday and in the process cleared the key resistance zone at 127.74/82, marking the highs between Apr 20 and May 26. This opens 128.50, 1.00 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing.