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Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bear Cycle Extends

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis recovered last week and continue to trade above recent lows. Trend conditions are bearish though and a resumption of weakness would open 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A break of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low and bear trigger. Clearance of 3950.00, Jun 28 high is required to instead suggest scope for a stronger recovery. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above last Tuesday’s low of 3343.00. Gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Last week’s breach of support at 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. The focus is on 3321.30, 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 3584.00, the Jun 27 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable following last week’s resumption of the downtrend and extension lower within the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The focus is on 1.0009, the channel base. Sights are also set on parity. GBPUSD remains vulnerable and the recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag formation. A resumption of weakness would open 1.1795, 0.764 projection of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing. USDJPY has started the week on a firm note, trading above 137.00 resistance and resuming the primary uptrend. The focus is on 137.30 next, 1.50 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing, ahead of 138.00.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable following last week’s move lower that resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend and has opened $1706.3 next, 1.618 projection of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable following last week’s move lower and break of support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. Potential is for weakness towards $93.45 next. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
  • In the FI space, a short-term bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play. The focus is on 153.36, May 31 high. Gilts trend conditions remain bullish and the focus is on a climb towards 117.48, 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 29 price swing.
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