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Trend Indicators Remain Bearish

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  • In the equity space, sentiment remains bullish and the E-mini S&P (U1) traded higher again yesterday. The focus is on 4264.41, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, the recent break higher also exposes 4300.00. Initial firm support is at 4155.00, Jun 3 low.
  • In the FX space, EURUSD still appears vulnerable following Friday's move lower that saw the pair breach the 50-day EMA and probe the 1.2104 Jun 4 low. This week's consolidation appears to be a bear flag. A deeper sell-off would open 1.2052, May 13 low. GBPUSD has tested the 50-day EMA at 1.4041. Attention is on the key support at 1.4006, May 13 low. The outlook is bullish while this level holds. A break of 1.4006 though would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. USDJPY remains above support at 109.19, Jun 7 low. Gains Monday and yesterday have exposed resistance and the near-term bull trigger at 110.33, Jun 4 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold on Monday probed support at $1856.2, Jun 4 low. A deeper sell-off would open $1843.2, the 50-day EMA. Trend conditions in oil remain bullish and price continues to trend higher. Brent (Q1) focus is on $75.60, Apr 25 high 2019 (cont). WTI (N1) registers another high print. The focus is on $73.20, 3.236 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing.
  • Within FI, Bunds (U1) maintain a bullish tone and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The focus is on 173.32 next, 76.4% of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off. Support is at 171.93, 20-day EMA. Gilts (U1) cleared 127.74/82 last week, the highs between Apr 20 and May 26. This opens 128.50, 1.00 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing. Support is at 127.34, Jun 10 low.