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USDCAD TECHS

Remains Vulnerable

AUDUSD TECHS

Trend Needle Points North

US TSYS

Bonds Near Highs, Yield Curves Flatter

EURJPY TECHS

Bearish Outlook

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Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Cracks Support

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s move lower and reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. A resumption of weakness would open 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low and bear trigger. Clearance of 3950.00 is required to strengthen a bullish case. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading lower and approaching the 3400.00 handle. Conditions remain bearish following last week’s reversal from 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. This has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 3384.00, Jun 16 low. A break would resume the primary downtrend. On the upside, clearance of 3584.00 is required to reverse the short-term outlook.
  • In FX, the EURUSD has breached support at 1.0359, Jun 15 low, and 1.0350, the May 13 low. The break confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension lower within the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. This has opened 1.0233, the 1.382 projection of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing. GBPUSD remains vulnerable. The focus is on the bear trigger at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. Resistance to watch remains 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2256, the 20-day EMA. The USDJPY path of least resistance remains up. Last week’s gains delivered a fresh cycle high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Short-term retracements are considered corrective and initial support is at 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A resumption of gains would open 137.30 next, 1.50 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal weakened last week and this reinforces bearish conditions. Attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. This level was breached, briefly, on Friday. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $1780.4 Jan 28 low. Key trendline resistance intersects at $1859.2. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high. In the Oil space, WTI futures found resistance last week at $114.05, the Jun 29 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery and open $116.58, the Jun 17 high. For bears, an extension lower would open key support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. The first key support to watch is $104.56, the Jul 1 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures resumed their short-term uptrend last week and a bull cycle remains intact. The focus is on 152.28, 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg. Gilts cleared resistance on Friday at 114.55, Jun 24 high The break highlights potential for a stronger short-term recovery and this has opened 117.48, 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 29 price swing.
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  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s move lower and reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. A resumption of weakness would open 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low and bear trigger. Clearance of 3950.00 is required to strengthen a bullish case. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading lower and approaching the 3400.00 handle. Conditions remain bearish following last week’s reversal from 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. This has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 3384.00, Jun 16 low. A break would resume the primary downtrend. On the upside, clearance of 3584.00 is required to reverse the short-term outlook.
  • In FX, the EURUSD has breached support at 1.0359, Jun 15 low, and 1.0350, the May 13 low. The break confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension lower within the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. This has opened 1.0233, the 1.382 projection of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing. GBPUSD remains vulnerable. The focus is on the bear trigger at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. Resistance to watch remains 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2256, the 20-day EMA. The USDJPY path of least resistance remains up. Last week’s gains delivered a fresh cycle high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Short-term retracements are considered corrective and initial support is at 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A resumption of gains would open 137.30 next, 1.50 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal weakened last week and this reinforces bearish conditions. Attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. This level was breached, briefly, on Friday. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $1780.4 Jan 28 low. Key trendline resistance intersects at $1859.2. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high. In the Oil space, WTI futures found resistance last week at $114.05, the Jun 29 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery and open $116.58, the Jun 17 high. For bears, an extension lower would open key support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. The first key support to watch is $104.56, the Jul 1 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures resumed their short-term uptrend last week and a bull cycle remains intact. The focus is on 152.28, 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg. Gilts cleared resistance on Friday at 114.55, Jun 24 high The break highlights potential for a stronger short-term recovery and this has opened 117.48, 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 29 price swing.