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Market News Topics
May 10, 2022 09:46 GMT
Price Signal Summary - False Triangle Breakout In Oil?
MARKET INSIGHT
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal from 4303.00, the May 4 high. Monday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 4056.00, the May 2 low. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and opens 3958.00 next, the 2.00 projection of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing. Key resistance has been defined at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. The contract has traded lower, extending last week's sell-off. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low and of 3551.60, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally. This has exposed 3458.90 next, the 76.4% retracement. .
- In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend. Recent consolidation has taken on the appearance of a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0454, the Jan 1 2017 low. Resistance is at 1.0670, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The pair remains vulnerable following last Thursday’s sharp sell-off that confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 1.2252 next, the Jun 29 2020 low. The USDJPY primary uptrend remains intact and resistance at 131.25, the Apr 28 high, was probed Monday. Attention is on 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
- On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable. Attention is on $1848.8, 76.4% of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, $1909.8, the May 5 high is first resistance. In the Oil space, WTI futures reversed course on Monday. Last week’s break of triangle resistance, drawn from the Mar 15 low, highlighted a bullish development. However the sell-off yesterday, suggests the bullish break was a false one. This threatens the recent recovery and instead exposes support at $95.28, Apr 25 low.
- The trend direction in the FI space remains down. Bund futures continue to deliver fresh cycle lows - the contract traded to a low of 150.49 on Monday. This signals scope for weakness towards 150.15 next, the 0.764 projection of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains bearish and short-terms gains are considered corrective. Price continues to trade below resistance at 119.79, the Apr 26 high. A resumption of weakness would open 116.35, the Dec 30 2015 low (cont).
To read the full story
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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