Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
OUTLOOK
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish following last week’s extension lower - the trend has accelerated following the break of the July support. This strengthens bearish conditions and attention is on key support at 3657.00, Jun 17 low and an important medium-term bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft following the reversal on Sep 13, from 3678.00, the Jun 13 high and last week’s follow through. Key short-term support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low has been cleared, the break strengthens bearish conditions and has led to a breach of 3341.00, the Jul 5 low. The focus is on 3300.00.
- In FX, the EURUSD is vulnerable. The break lower last week and Monday, confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend - reinforced too by last week’s breach of 0.9864, the Sep 6 low. The move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price is also trending down inside a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel base intersects at 0.9513. Bearish trend conditions in GBPUSD remain intact. An important short-term support has been defined at 1.0350, Monday’s low. The trend is down and a break of this support would confirm a resumption of bearish activity. Yesterday’s close also highlights an important candle pattern - a hammer and potential reversal signal. A break above Monday’s high is required to strengthen this signal and highlight a potential short-term base. The pullback on Sep 22 in USDJPY resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, currently at 142.17. The trend structure remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. A continuation higher would expose 145.90, the Sep 22 high and the next bull trigger. Key short-term support has been defined at 140.36, Sep 22 low. A break would highlight a short-term top in the trend.
- On the commodity front, Gold traded lower Friday, breaking out of its recent range and in the process confirmed the bear flag formation evident on the daily chart. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens $1610.5, the 1.00 projection of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing. In the Oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present. The recent break of support at $84.25, the Jul 14 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and marks the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Attention is on $76.11, 1.618 projection of the Jul 29 - Aug 16 - 30 price swing.
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the extension lower last week and yesterday, confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started early August. The major support at 140.67, the Jun 16 low (cont), has been cleared. The focus is on 137.00. Gilts resumed bearish activity Monday and gapped lower. The extension maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The psychological 100.00 handle has been cleared, attention is on 94.72, the Sep 1992 low (cont). Further out, the focus is on the next key retracement of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg, at 91.47.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok