MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Price Signal Summary - Gold Breaks to New Cycle Highs

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, the e-mini S&P partially reversed the Tuesday recovery into the Thursday close, reinforcing the fragile nature of equity sentiment. This keeps the outlook pointed lower for now, with downside impetus strengthened by the failure of the contract to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4549.15. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable. Last week, the contract failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4188.70. This average still represents a key resistance point where a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open 4324.50, Jan 13 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD traded in a volatile manner across the Thursday session but provided few fresh technical signals. The outlook remains modestly positive, having narrowed the gap with next resistance at the Feb11 high of 1.1401. GBPUSD traded slightly higher again Thursday, having recovered from brief slippage on Tuesday. The rate continues to trade inside its recent range and importantly above support at 1.3491, Feb 7 low. AUDUSD continues to hold recovery gains, putting the pair at odds with the likes of USDJPY, which have slipped lower. Markets re-target the early February highs of 0.7249 to sustain any rally, while a return back below 0.7086 would prove bearish.
  • On the commodity front, the Gold rally resumed Thursday, pushing prices to fresh cycle highs as the uptrend accelerated through 1879.6. This puts gold at the best levels since June last year, and keeps the trend direction pointed higher. WTI faded into the Wednesday close, but dips remain corrective in nature for now, with the broader outlook remaining positive. Corrections remain shallow and this both highlights and reinforces underlying bullish sentiment.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures recovered off the day’s lows ahead of the Wednesday close and built further through the Thursday session. This rally is deemed corrective, however, with the broader outlook bearish for now. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, but markets are currently undergoing a corrective rally, putting prices back toward recent highs of 120.96.
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