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Price Signal Summary - Gold Extends Its Retracement

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, the trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish. The contract continues to trade below the 20-day EMA that intersects at 4299.75. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, the bear trigger is unchanged at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable and continue to trade below Friday’s high of 3827.00 and below the 20-day EMA, at 3810.30. The recent move higher has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. A break above the 20-day EMA is required to suggest potential for a stronger retracement. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 3380.00, the Mar 7 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD is slightly firmer but remains below its key short-term resistance of 1.1121, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus last week’s high. The trend remains down and a resumption of weakness would open 1.0767 next, the May 7 2020 low. Clearance of 1.1121 is needed to suggest scope for a stronger short-term correction. GBPUSD has traded lower again today and touched 1.3000. A bearish theme remains intact and sights are on; 1.2954, the 1.764 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing and 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. Last week’s key technical development in USDJPY was the break of resistance at 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs and a bull trigger. The break higher confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and the rally has accelerated. The next objective is 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This zone also represents a key resistance.
  • On the commodity front, the all-time high print in Gold of $2075.5 on Aug 7 2020, remains intact. The current bear cycle is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1901.5 next, the Mar 1 low. On the upside, an initial firm short-term resistance is seen at $2009.2, the Mar 10 high. Oil markets continue to correct lower. The move down in WTI is allowing the recent overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at $93.34. This EMA highlights a key area of support. Initial resistance is at $110.29, the Mar 11 high.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower Monday and breached key support at 161.50, the Feb 10 low and a medium-term bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of this year’s downtrend and opens the 160.00 handle. Gilts remain weak and attention is on the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low. A break would open 120.00.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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