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Price Signal Summary - Intraday Volatility Reinforces Fragility of Equities

CROSS ASSET
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis remains vulnerable, with corrective intraday rallies proving particularly shallow. This keeps the outlook pointed lower for now, with downside impetus strengthened by the failure of the contract to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4549.15. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable despite the Wednesday bounce. Last week, the contract failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4188.70. This average still represents a key resistance point where a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open 4324.50, Jan 13 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD steadied Wednesday but has traded in a volatile manner overnight. The outlook remains modestly positive, however, having narrowed the gap with next resistance at the Feb11 high of 1.1401. GBPUSD traded slightly higher Wednesday, having recovered from a brief slip lower on Tuesday. The rate continues to trade inside its recent range and importantly above support at 1.3491, Feb 7 low.
  • On the commodity front, the Gold rally paused Tuesday before prices regained some poise into the Wednesday close. The recent clearance of resistance at $1853.9, the Jan 25 high reinforces the underlying bullish condition and Tuesday’s show above $1877.2, the Nov 16 high adds to the bullish case. Strength across WTI futures resumed Wednesday, with the dip seen earlier in the week largely reversed - confirming that weakness is currently corrective in nature.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures appear vulnerable and the downtrend remains firmly intact. The focus is on the 164.00 handle. The Gilts trend needle still points south and the contract has delivered another fresh cycle low today of 119.39. Price is approaching the 119.36 level, Oct 10, 2018 low (cont). A break would open 119.06, the 2.500 projection of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing.
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