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Price Signal Summary - Path Of Least Resistance in FI Futures Remains Down

OUTLOOK
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain soft and continue to trade closer to recent lows. Last week’s breach of 3900.00, the Sep 7 low, strengthened bearish conditions and signals scope for a move towards 3819.54 next, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 bull leg. A break would open 3741.75, the Jul 14 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal on Sep 13 and the subsequent move lower. A key support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 3360.00, the Jul 16 low.
  • In FX, the EURUSD outlook remains bearish and the pair is trading lower. Price remains inside the bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high and attention is on the bear trigger at 0.9864, Sep 6 low. The channel top intersects at 1.0087 and marks a key resistance. A channel breakout is required to signal a short-term reversal. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the downtrend has again resumed. The recent break of support at 1.1406, Sep 7 low, confirmed a continuation of the downtrend. The focus is on 1.1248, 1.618 projection of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing. USDJPY is consolidating and this pause in the uptrend appears to be a bullish pennant formation. This pattern reinforces the broader bullish theme and attention is on the bull trigger at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open 145.28 and 146.03, the 2.618 and 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. Initial firm support is at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 141.43.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend and last Thursday’s bearish extension reinforces this theme - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and this confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early March. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low. In the Oil space, the WTI futures outlook is bearish and today’s gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at $85.37, Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8. A resumption of weakness would open $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. Firm resistance is at $89.86, the 50-day EMA.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and Tuesday’s extension lower confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started early August. 140.67, the Jun 16 low (cont), has been pierced. A clear break would open the psychological 140.00 handle. Gilts remain vulnerable and futures touched a fresh trend low of 103.60 on Tuesday. Attention is on 103.31 the Jun 2008 low.
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