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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Back Below The 50-Day EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis are off recent highs and have traded below the 50-day EMA today - the average intersects at 4410.41. A deeper sell-off would highlight a bearish threat and the risk of a pullback towards the key support at 4293.75, Sep 20 low. Price needs to break above 4472.00, Sep 27 high to trigger a resumption of the most recent climb. EUROSTOXX 50 has also pulled away from recent highs and is weaker again today. A deeper pullback would expose the key support at 3974.00, Sep 20 low. Resistance has been defined at 4200.50, Sep 24 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD outlook remains bearish. The focus is on key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low. GBPUSD remains above key support at 1.3602, Aug 20 low. Triangle support at 1.3637 remains intact too and a breach of the 1.3636/02 zone is required to trigger a deeper sell-off. A resumption of gains would open 1.3789, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY has traded through 110.80, Aug 11 high. The break strengthens a bull case and opens 111.66, Jul 2 high and the bull trigger. The USD Index (DXY) key resistance resides at 93.73, Aug 20 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 25.
  • On the commodity front, the Gold trend needle still points south and the focus is on $1742.5, 76.4% of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. WTI futures continue to defy gravity and the focus is on $78.24 - 1.236 projection of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
  • In FI, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and are trading lower this morning confirming a resumption of the current bear cycle. This opens 169.46 next, 1.50 projections of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing. Gilt futures remain heavy and are also trading lower. The focus is on 124.96, 1.236 projection of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing. Treasuries trending lower too. Scope is seen for weakness towards 131-03+, the Jun 25 low.

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