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VIEW: ASB Looking For Higher Peak In OCR


Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Thursday:


Retains Bear Cycle


Carry-Over Weakness for Bonds

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  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis have traded higher and are currently testing the 50-day EMA at 4385.86. The area around the EMA represents a key resistance area and a clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension that could see price move towards 4472.00, Sep 27 high. A failure at the 50-day EMA would expose key support at 4260.00, Oct 1 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are climbing this morning and the contract has cleared the 50-day EMA. Clear follow through would open 4200.50, Sep 24 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD is trading higher, following through on Wednesday's bounce. The next resistance is at 1.1633, the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective and the primary trend remains down. GBPUSD has moved through its 50-day EMA as the uptrend that started Sep 29, extends. The next resistance is at 1.3751, Sep 23 high. USDJPY remains firm following the recent strong impulsive rally. The pair has breached 113.41, a multi-year trendline drawn from the Dec 1975 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and opens a vol band resistance at 114.26.
  • On the commodity front, Gold rallied yesterday and in the process cleared a number of short-term resistance levels. Attention turns to $1808.7, Sep 14 high. WTI trend conditions remain bullish. The focus is on $82.89 - 1.764 projection of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing.
  • In the FI space, the primary trend is unchanged and remains down. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent Bund weakness has exposed 167.98, 2.382 projection of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing.
  • Gilt futures remain in a downtrend and this week's recovery is considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 123.27, 2.00 projection of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing. Resistance is at 125.52, the 20-day EMA.