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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Arrive At The 50-DAY EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • A firmer week so far in the equity space. S&P E-Minis traded higher again Thursday and has arrived at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4397.99 - a key resistance area. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and open 4500.00. A strong reversal from current levels would instead be seen as a bearish signal. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and this resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. The move higher has exposed the 50-day EMA, at 3961.00. The average is a key resistance.
  • In FX, EURUSD traded higher yesterday, building on the week’s gains. The pair has probed key resistance at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low. A clear break would signal potential for an extension higher near-term. This would open 1.1187, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope as well as the 50-day EMA of 1.1199. A failure to hold onto gains at the 1.1121 handle would instead highlight a bearish threat. GBPUSD remains in a downtrend and this week’s gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open; 1.2954, the 1.764 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing and 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. Resistance is seen at 1.3240, 20-day EMA. USDJPY remains bullish following this week’s breach of resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This has strengthened bullish conditions and opens 119.18 next - the 3.236 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing. Further out, 120.00 beckons.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is off its recent lows. Short-term conditions remain bearish though following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. The 20-day EMA has been breached exposing $1891.3 next, the 50-day EMA. The broader trend condition is bullish though and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Initial resistance is at $1954.7, the Mar 15 high. Oil markets have recovered from recent lows. WTI is trading above Tuesday's low of $93.53. The recent recovery means the 50-day EMA, at $93.89, remains intact. A continuation higher would open $110.29, the Mar 11 high. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger short-term rally. On the downside, clearance of the 50-day EMA would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures are consolidating but maintain a bearish tone. This week’s price action has resulted in a break of key support at 161.50, the Feb 10 low and a medium-term bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of this year’s downtrend and opens the 160.00 handle. Gilts Wednesday probed the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low. A clear break would open 120.00 and confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Resistance is seen at 123.52, the Mar 9 high. Gains are considered corrective.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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