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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bear Threat Still Present

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis have traded lower again. This week’s sell-off has resulted in a break of support at 4572.75, the Jan 10 low. This once again highlights the developing bearish risk and exposes 4520.25, the Dec 20 low and the next key support at 4485.75, Dec 3 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures tested and briefly probed support at 4216.50, Jan 10 low. This level has held for now and support has again surfaced below the 50-day EMA. Weakness below today’s intraday low of 4212.00 would trigger a resumption of bearish pressure. However, also watch resistance at 4324.50, Jan 13 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme.
  • In FX, yesterday’s sell-off in EURUSD resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, currently at 1.1355. This week’s price action threatens the recent bullish theme and suggests that at this stage, last week’s range and bear channel breakout appears to have been a false one. Further weakness would expose 1.1272, the Jan 4 low. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bullish. Attention is on the 200-dma, at 1.3736. This average has been probed, a clear break would open 1.3835, Oct 20 high. Support to watch is at 1.3547, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY remains above Friday's low of 113.49. Friday’s doji candle pattern continues to highlight a reversal and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. A resumption of gains would open 115.68, Jan 11 high. Sub 113.49 levels would be bearish.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains below recent highs. The outlook is bullish and attention is on resistance at $1831.9, Jan 3 high. A break would open $1849.1, Nov 22 high. The base of the bull channel drawn from the Aug 9, 2021 low intersects at $1789.1 and is a key support. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the contract has traded higher once again today. The focus is on $87.86, 2.00 projection of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain vulnerable and have today traded below 169.34, Oct 29 low. This strengthens bearish conditions and opens 168.84, 3.764 projection of the Dec 8 - 20 price swing. 171.00 is the key short-term resistance, Jan 13 high. Gilts remain in a downtrend. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a break of former support at 122.78, Jan 10 low. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and today’s weakness reinforces current conditions. The focus is 121.61, Nov 13 2018 low on the continuation chart.
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Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeEmerging Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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