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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis found resistance at yesterday’s high of 4095.00. This leaves initial key resistance - 4099.00, the May 9 high - intact. The reversal lower yesterday signals a resumption of the primary downtrend and attention is on support and bear trigger at 3855.00, May 12 low. A break would resume the downtrend and open 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont). The primary trend direction in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains down. However, the contract is currently in a corrective cycle following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price has probed resistance at 3736.70, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would improve a short-term bullish theme. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is 3466.00.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0341, the Jan 3 2017 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is at 1.0569, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and the pair cleared 1.2406, the May 9 high. This move was reversed on Wednesday as resistance around the 20-day EMA capped gains. The average intersects at 1.2494 where a clear break is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. A deeper pullback would expose key support at 1.2156, May 13 low and the bear trigger. USDJPY remains above initial firm support at 127.52, May 12 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 131.35, May 9 high. A break would open 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. Sub 127.52 levels would expose support at 126.95, Apr 27 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable and short-term gains are considered corrective. The yellow metal traded through $1800.0 on Monday. The focus is on $1780.4, the Jan 28 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures maintain a firm note, following recent gains, and despite the current pullback. The contract has this week breached resistance at $111.37, May 5 high and $113.51, the Mar 24 high. A resumption of gains would open $118.13, the Mar 9 high and the $120.00 handle. Initial support is at $106.50, the 20-day EMA.
  • In the FI, Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract has pulled away from recent highs. Resistance has been defined at $155.33 May 12 high. An extension lower would open 150.49, the May 9 and the bear trigger. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains down. The contract has found resistance at 121.07, May 12 high. The bear trigger is at 116.87, May 9 low.

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