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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Find Support At The 50-Day EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday/Thursday. The contract arrived at its key support area - the 50-day EMA. This average intersects at 4455.32 and marks a key pivot level. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and allow for a deeper pullback that would open 4425.96 initially, 38.2% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally. The EMA has thus far provided support. Resistance is at 4588.75, the Apr 5 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures also traded lower this week. Price has moved below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and probed support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and highlights a developing bearish threat. An extension lower would open 3626.50, 50.0% of the Ma r 7 - 29 rally. The contract is attempting a recovery from recent lows. Key S/T resistance has been defined at 3944.00, the Mar 29 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD is trading lower. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, and more importantly, a failure above the 50-day EMA highlights a bearish threat. This week’s move lower has reinforced this theme and attention is on 1.0806, the Mar 7 low and a bear trigger. GBPUSD remains vulnerable and the focus is on 1.3000 next, the Mar 15 low and the near-term bear trigger. Key resistance is unchanged at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 1.3261 today. USDJPY remains above last week’s low of 121.28 (Mar 31) and below its key resistance of 125.09, the Mar 28 trend high. A corrective cycle is still in play despite recent gains. A break of 121.28 would allow for an extension lower and open 120.95, Mar 24 low ahead of 120.00. For bulls, clearance of 125.09 would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains inside its range. The yellow metal recently found support at $1890.2, on Mar 29, and this level still represents the short-term bear trigger. Initial resistance is at $1966.1, Mar 24 high. In the Oil space, WTI futures traded lower this week, resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA. The print below this average suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term. The focus is on the next key support at $92.20, Mar 15 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $105.59, the Apr 5 high.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower again yesterday. Key near-term resistance is seen at 159.79, the Apr 4 high. The focus is on the bear trigger at 156.05, Mar 29 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Gilts traded to a fresh trend low yesterday of 119.83. This reinforces bearish conditions and scope is for weakness towards 119.36, the Oct 10 2018 low (cont). Resistance is at 122.35, Monday’s high.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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