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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Find Support At The 50-Day EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday/Thursday. The contract arrived at its key support area - the 50-day EMA. This average intersects at 4455.32 and marks a key pivot level. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and allow for a deeper pullback that would open 4425.96 initially, 38.2% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally. The EMA has thus far provided support. Resistance is at 4588.75, the Apr 5 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures also traded lower this week. Price has moved below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and probed support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and highlights a developing bearish threat. An extension lower would open 3626.50, 50.0% of the Ma r 7 - 29 rally. The contract is attempting a recovery from recent lows. Key S/T resistance has been defined at 3944.00, the Mar 29 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD is trading lower. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, and more importantly, a failure above the 50-day EMA highlights a bearish threat. This week’s move lower has reinforced this theme and attention is on 1.0806, the Mar 7 low and a bear trigger. GBPUSD remains vulnerable and the focus is on 1.3000 next, the Mar 15 low and the near-term bear trigger. Key resistance is unchanged at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 1.3261 today. USDJPY remains above last week’s low of 121.28 (Mar 31) and below its key resistance of 125.09, the Mar 28 trend high. A corrective cycle is still in play despite recent gains. A break of 121.28 would allow for an extension lower and open 120.95, Mar 24 low ahead of 120.00. For bulls, clearance of 125.09 would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains inside its range. The yellow metal recently found support at $1890.2, on Mar 29, and this level still represents the short-term bear trigger. Initial resistance is at $1966.1, Mar 24 high. In the Oil space, WTI futures traded lower this week, resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA. The print below this average suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term. The focus is on the next key support at $92.20, Mar 15 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $105.59, the Apr 5 high.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower again yesterday. Key near-term resistance is seen at 159.79, the Apr 4 high. The focus is on the bear trigger at 156.05, Mar 29 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Gilts traded to a fresh trend low yesterday of 119.83. This reinforces bearish conditions and scope is for weakness towards 119.36, the Oct 10 2018 low (cont). Resistance is at 122.35, Monday’s high.

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