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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Have Cleared The 50-DAY EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and are holding onto recent gains. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4400.17 today. The break improves the short-term bullish condition and opens 4578.50, the Feb 9 high. A strong reversal from current levels would instead be seen as a bearish signal. Initial support is seen at 4323.83, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher last week and price remains at its recent highs. The move higher has exposed the 50-day EMA, at 3878.10 - a key short-term resistance.
  • In FX, EURUSD last week, traded above key resistance at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low. A clear break of this hurdle would signal potential for a bullish extension near-term. This would open 1.1200, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope as well as the 50-day EMA just below, at 1.1193. A failure to hold onto levels around the 1.1121 handle would instead highlight a bearish threat. GBPUSD remains in a downtrend and last week’s gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open; 1.2954, the 1.764 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing and 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. The bear trigger is 1.3000, Mar 15 low and resistance is seen at 1.3234, 20-day EMA. USDJPY remains bullish following last week’s breach of resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This has strengthened bullish conditions and sights are on 119.90, the bull channel top drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high and the 120.00 psychological handle.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is off its recent lows. Short-term conditions remain bearish though following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. Attention is on $1892.5 next, the 50-day EMA. The broader trend condition is bullish though and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Initial resistance to watch is at $1954.7, the Mar 15 high. Oil markets have recovered from recent lows. WTI is trading above last Tuesday's low of $93.53. The recent recovery means the 50-day EMA, at $94.32, has remained intact. Resistance is at $110.29, the Mar 11 high. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger short-term rally.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures are consolidating. The contract remains in a downtrend following last week’s break of key support at 161.50, the Feb 10 low and a medium-term bear trigger. The break opens the 160.00 handle. Gilts last week probed the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low. A clear break would open 120.00 and confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Resistance is seen at 123.52, the Mar 9 high. Gains are considered corrective.

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