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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Probes Key Support

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend, despite the recovery from yesterday’s low. Fresh lows have reinforced underlying bearish conditions and yesterday’s move lower resulted in a probe of key support at 4094.25, the Feb 25 low. A clear break of this level would reinforce bearish conditions. 4056.00, Monday’s low, has also been defined as an important bear trigger. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating but remain vulnerable. The moving average set-up continues to highlight a bear mode condition. A resumption of weakness would open 3551.60, the 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally. Key resistance is unchanged at 3883.00, Apr 21 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD is trading near its recent lows and remains in a clear downtrend. The recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0454, the Jan 1 2017 low. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish, following the recent impulsive selling pressure. The focus is on 1.2375, the 2.382 projection of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing. USDJPY bulls have paused for breath. Last week's resumption of the primary uptrend and the break of 130.00 suggests scope for further upside. The focus is on 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. DXY remains in a clear uptrend and last week probed major resistance at 103.82, the Jan 3 2017 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. Note that the strong monthly close in the index for April is a bullish signal. In Japanese candle terms, April is a standard line pattern and this is a continuation signal.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains weak. The recent pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18), and the breach last week of $1890.2, the Mar 29 low, continues to highlight a bearish threat. Attention is on $1848.8, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, $1922.5 the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance. In the Oil space, WTI futures continue to trade inside a triangle formation that has appeared on the daily chart and is drawn from the Mar 15 low. The pattern is a bearish signal and suggests potential for a test and break of support at $95.28, Apr 25 low. Resistance is at $106.24/107.99, triangle resistance and the Apr 29 high.
  • The broader trend condition in the FI space remains bearish. Bund futures have traded lower today and entered territory below 153.00. This reinforces bearish conditions and an extension lower would open 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). The broader trend condition in Gilts remains bearish. Resistance has been defined at 119.79, the Apr 26 high. Attention is on the bear trigger at 117.22 bear trigger, Apr 22 low.
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