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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Probes The 20-Day EMA

  • In the equity space, the trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish. The contract however is trading higher. Attention is on the 20-day EMA that intersects at 4295.37. This has been probed, a clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This would open the 50-day EMA at 4399.80. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are firmer too this morning. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3803.60, the 20-day EMA, that has also been breached today. A clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open the 50-day EMA at 3966.90.
  • In FX, EURUSD is consolidating and remains below its key short-term resistance of 1.1121, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus last week’s high. The trend is down and a resumption of weakness would open 1.0767 next, the May 7 2020 low. Clearance of 1.1121 is needed to suggest scope for a stronger short-term correction. GBPUSD traded lower yesterday and touched 1.3000. A bearish theme remains intact and sights are on; 1.2954, the 1.764 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing and 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. Short-term gains are considered corrective. USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Last week’s key technical development was the break of resistance at 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs and a bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend and the rally has since accelerated. The next objective is 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This zone also represents a key resistance.
  • On the commodity front, Gold traded lower yesterday and breached the 20-day EMA. This suggests scope for a deeper retracement. The next support is at $1901.5 next, the Mar 1 low. Oil markets continue to correct lower. The move down in WTI is still allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at $93.46. This EMA highlights a key area of support. Initial firm resistance is at $110.29, the Mar 11 high.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and have breached key support at 161.50, the Feb 10 low and a medium-term bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of this year’s downtrend and opens the 160.00 handle. Gilts remain weak and attention is on the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low. This support has been probed. A clear break would open 120.00 and confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

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