May 05, 2022 09:57 GMT
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical Analysismarkets-real-timeEmerging MarketsBulletMarketsFixed IncomeForeign Exchange
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis rallied sharply higher Wednesday. Broader trend conditions remain bearish and the current bull phase is likely a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. A break would suggest scope for an extension higher towards the 50-day EMA at 4375.43. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4056.00, Monday’s low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above 3608.00, Apr 27 low. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a bearish trend condition remains intact. Resistance to watch is; 3790.50, the 50-day EMA and 3883.00, the Apr 21 high. The bear trigger is 3608.00, Apr 27 low.
- In FX, EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend, despite yesterday’s gains. Recent price action appears to be a bear flag. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0454, the Jan 1 2017 low. Resistance is at 1.0711, the 20-day EMA. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. A break of 1.2412, Apr 28 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2375, the 2.382 projection of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing. Resistance is at 1.2782, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY trend conditions are unchanged and the direction remains up. The focus is on 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
- On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable, despite this week’s recovery. The recent pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18), and the breach last week of $1890.2, the Mar 29 low, continues to highlight a bearish threat. Attention is on $1848.8, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, $1913.9, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain above the Apr 25 low of $95.28. The contract has broken out of its triangle - to the upside - and this strengthens the short-term condition for bulls. Attention is on resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, where a break would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $113.51, the Mar 24 high. Initial firm support is at $100.28, May 2 low.
- The trend direction in the FI space remains down. Bund futures traded lower yesterday. This once again reinforces bearish conditions and an extension lower would open 151.99, the 0.618 projection of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains bearish. Resistance has been defined at 119.79, the Apr 26 high. Attention is on the bear trigger at 117.22, the Apr 22 low.