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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Trend Needle Still Points North

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded higher again Thursday. This reinforces bullish conditions and attention is on 4272.35, the 1.764 projection of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing. On the downside, initial trend support is at 4080.50, the Aug 2 low. The short-term uptrend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer at its recent highs. The focus is on 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. Initial firm support to watch is 3618.80, the 50-day EMA.
  • In FX, EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and briefly traded above the bear channel top, currently at 1.0335. The channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high. 1.0335 and Wednesday’s high of 1.0368 marks a key resistance zone and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a clear channel breakout. Note that a deeper pullback and a breach of 1.0123, the Aug 3 low, would instead signal a reversal inside the channel. A bullish short-term theme in GBPUSD remains intact and Wednesday’s gains reinforce this theme. The focus is on 1.2293, the Aug 1 high. Watch support at 1.2004, the Aug 5 low, a break would be bearish. USDJPY traded sharply lower Wednesday. This signals a reversal of the recent correction between Aug 2 - 8. A continuation lower would expose 130.41, the Aug 2 low and the bear trigger. Firm resistance has been defined at 135.58, the Aug 8 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold traded higher Wednesday and did breach trendline resistance at $1794.6. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a stronger bullish reversal. Clearance of Wednesday’s $1807.9 high would reinforce bullish conditions and confirm a break of the trendline. Key support to watch is at $1754.4 the Aug 3 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures traded higher yesterday and the contract cleared $92.65, the Aug 9 high. This signals scope for a bullish extension towards $97.97, the 50-day EMA.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower Thursday. The latest retracement is still considered corrective and the short-term trend direction is up. A resumption of gains would open 159.79, Apr 4 high (cont). Initial support is 154.75, Jul 28 low. First resistance is at 157.74, Aug 10 high. The trend direction in Gilts remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. However, futures have managed to break support at 116.79, a trendline drawn from the Jun 16 low. This has exposed 114.86, 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg. Resistance to watch is at 118.10, Aug 10 high.
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