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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Trend Needle Still Points South

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis are unchanged and remain below key short-term resistance at 4099.00, May 9 high. The outlook is bearish following a fresh trend low last Friday. Attention is on 3801.97, 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont). 3807.50, Friday’s low is the bear trigger. A break of resistance at 4099.00 is required to signal a base. The primary trend direction in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is down. A corrective cycle is still in play though following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price last week probed the 50-day EMA, today at 3722.00. A clear break of this average would improve a short-term bullish theme. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 3466.00.
  • In FX, EURUSD is consolidating. The pair has this week cleared the 20-day EMA, and 1.0642, the May 5 high. An extension higher would signal scope for a climb towards 1.0839, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Initial support is at 1.0533, May 20 low. GBPUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone following this weeks climb above 1.2525, May 19 high and the 20-day EMA at 1.2510. This opens 1.2638, the May 4 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support lies at 1.2438, May 20 low. USDJPY appears vulnerable. The pair has this week traded through support at 126.95, the Apr 27 low and an important short-term pivot level. The breach suggests scope for a continuation lower. A move down is still considered a correction and is allowing a recent overbought trend reading to unwind. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 125.95.
  • On the commodity front, Gold has this week traded above resistance at $1859.1, the 20-day EMA. This opens the 50-day EMA at $1883.3. The latest move higher is still considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on last week’s $1787.0 low (May 16). In the Oil space, WTI futures continue to trade at its recent highs and maintain a firm tone. The contract last week breached resistance at $110.07, Mar 24 high. A resumption of gains would open $116.43, the Mar 7 trend high. Initial support is at $103.24, the May 19 low.
  • In the FI space, resistance in Bund futures is at $155.33 May 12 high. The trend direction remains down and an extension lower would open 150.49, the May 9 and the bear trigger. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains down. The contract has recently found resistance at 121.07, May 12 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 116.87, May 9 low.
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