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Price Signal Summary - Treasuries Resume Their Downtrend

  • In the equity space, EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading near recent highs and holding onto the bulk of last week's gains. The focus is on 4200.50, Sep 24 high. S&P E-minis are holding onto the bulk of last week's gains. Futures have cleared the 50-day EMA and the focus is on resistance at 4472.00, Sep 27 high. It's an important short-term resistance and a break would signal potential for stronger gains near-term. The 50-day EMA at 4390.54 is the support to watch.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains below resistance at 1.1627, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains are considered corrective and the primary trend remains down. A strong break above the 20-day EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger correction. The bear trigger is 1.1524, Oct 12 low. GBPUSD has recently moved through its 50-day EMA, extending the uptrend from Sep 29. The next resistance is at 1.3795, 76.4% retracement of the Sep 14 -29 downleg. USDJPY Remains firm. Last week's key technical development was the breach of 113.41, a multi-year trendline drawn from the Dec 1975 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and opens 114.50/83, 1.382 projection of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing and the 2.0% 10-dma envelope (upper band).
  • On the commodity front, Gold has failed to hold onto recent highs and Friday's sharp reversal lower highlights a developing bearish threat. Short-term resistance has been defined at $1800.6, the Oct 14 high. An extension lower would expose support at $1746.0, Oct 6 low. WTI trend conditions remain bullish and futures have resumed their uptrend. The focus is on $84.00 next.
  • In the FI space, the primary trend remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent Bund weakness has exposed 167.98, 2.382 projection of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing. Resistance is at 169.97, 20-day EMA. Gilt futures remain in a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 123.27, 2.00 projection of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing. Resistance is at 125.40, the 20-day EMA. Treasuries are weaker today and have resumed their downtrend. Sight are on 130-17 next, 1.618 projection of the Aug 4 - 11 - 17 price swing.

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