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Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Bunds Continues To Point South

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, the trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle low today. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and attention is on 130.25, the 1.236 projection of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing. On the upside, firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. First resistance is at 131.81, the 20-day EMA. |
  • A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The contract traded lower last week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Apr 17. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, MA studies have crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for an extension towards 95.96 and 95.41, the 1.764 and 2.00 projections of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing. Initial firm resistance is 98.23, the Apr 12 high. Initial resistance is at 97.69, the 20-day EMA.
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