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Pullback In TY Skew Seen During Recent Bid

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Price Signal Summary - USD Pullback Considered Corrective

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend despite the recent recovery from 4136.75, Apr 26 low. This week’s lows reinforced bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. This has opened 4129.50, the Mar 15 low. Initial resistance is at 4303.50, Apr 26/28 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger corrective bounce and expose 4355.50, the Apr 18 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in bear mode and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00. A resumption of weakness would open 3551.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at 3883.00, Apr 21 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The focus is on 1.0454, the Jan 1 2017 low. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following the recent impulsive move lower. The focus is on 1.2375, 2.382 projection of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing. USDJPY resumed its uptrend on Thursday, following the breach of 129.40, Apr 20 high. Importantly, the pair has also cleared the psychological 130.00 handle, strengthening a bullish theme. This has opened 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. DXY remains in a clear uptrend and has tested major resistance at 103.82, the Jan 3 2017 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable despite the recovery from yesterday’s low. The recent pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat. This has been reinforced by the break this week, of support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. Attention is on $1848.8, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, $1932.1, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance. In the Oil space, WTI futures maintain this week’s firmer tone. A triangle formation has appeared on the daily chart and price is trading at the top of this pattern - triangle resistance intersects at 106.78. A key resistance is also seen at $109.20, the Apr 18 high. A break of these levels would be seen as a bullish development. Initial support lies at $99.80, the Apr 27 low.
  • The broader trend condition in the FI space remains bearish. Bund futures are eyeing the 153.00 handle next. Recent gains are considered corrective and the resistance to watch is at 156.01 the 20-day EMA. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains bearish. This week’s breach of the 20-day EMA and a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high, appeared to be a bullish development. Price has instead failed to hold on to recent highs and resistance has been defined at 119.79, the Apr 26 high. An extension lower would expose the 117.22 bear trigger, Apr 22 low.
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  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend despite the recent recovery from 4136.75, Apr 26 low. This week’s lows reinforced bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. This has opened 4129.50, the Mar 15 low. Initial resistance is at 4303.50, Apr 26/28 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger corrective bounce and expose 4355.50, the Apr 18 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in bear mode and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00. A resumption of weakness would open 3551.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at 3883.00, Apr 21 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The focus is on 1.0454, the Jan 1 2017 low. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following the recent impulsive move lower. The focus is on 1.2375, 2.382 projection of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing. USDJPY resumed its uptrend on Thursday, following the breach of 129.40, Apr 20 high. Importantly, the pair has also cleared the psychological 130.00 handle, strengthening a bullish theme. This has opened 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. DXY remains in a clear uptrend and has tested major resistance at 103.82, the Jan 3 2017 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable despite the recovery from yesterday’s low. The recent pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat. This has been reinforced by the break this week, of support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. Attention is on $1848.8, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, $1932.1, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance. In the Oil space, WTI futures maintain this week’s firmer tone. A triangle formation has appeared on the daily chart and price is trading at the top of this pattern - triangle resistance intersects at 106.78. A key resistance is also seen at $109.20, the Apr 18 high. A break of these levels would be seen as a bullish development. Initial support lies at $99.80, the Apr 27 low.
  • The broader trend condition in the FI space remains bearish. Bund futures are eyeing the 153.00 handle next. Recent gains are considered corrective and the resistance to watch is at 156.01 the 20-day EMA. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains bearish. This week’s breach of the 20-day EMA and a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high, appeared to be a bullish development. Price has instead failed to hold on to recent highs and resistance has been defined at 119.79, the Apr 26 high. An extension lower would expose the 117.22 bear trigger, Apr 22 low.