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Price Signal Summary - USD Trend Direction Remains Up

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded to another all-time high Friday of 4723.50. From a trend perspective, the outlook remains bullish and any short-term pullback is likely corrective in nature. Bulls eye, 4746.68 next, the 1.618 projection of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing. The support to watch is 4625.25, the Nov 10 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact however, the contract has recently faced selling pressure and remains below recent highs. Dips are considered corrective and the support to watch is 4311.70, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 4420.80, 1.382 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend. The pair is trading at the base of its bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. The channel intersects at 1.1285 today. A clear break lower and continued bearish follow through would open 1.1222, 1.618 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing. The recent break in GBPUSD of 1.3412, Sep 29 low, opens 1.3334 next, 1.00 projection of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing. Recent gains are still considered corrective, initial resistance is at 1.3533, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY remains bullish following the recent breach of resistance at 114.70, Oct 20 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and opens 115.51 next, the Mar 10, 2017 high. Price action on Nov 17 is a bearish engulfing candle and remains a concern for bulls. A deeper pullback would expose key support at 112.73, Sep 9 low. EURCHF is bearish. The cross has cleared 1.0505, May 14, 2020 low and the break exposes 1.0397 next, the Jul 15, 2015 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish and dips are considered corrective. Attention is on $1877.7, Jun 14 high and $1903.8, Jun 8 high. Support is seen at $1822.4, Nov 10 low. WTI last week traded through key short-term support at $77.23, Nov 4 low. The break suggests scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards $74.25 next, 38.2% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures rallied sharply Friday, strengthening bullish conditions. The focus is on 172.95, 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off. Gilts maintain a firmer tone. The recent resumption of strength suggests potential for a climb towards 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial support has been defined at 125.40, Nov 17 low.

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