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Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Approaches Key Short-Term Support

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis are holding on to the bulk of recent gains. Last week’s bullish extension confirmed a break above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and suggests scope for a climb towards 4145.75 next, the Jun 9 high. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at 3890.70, is the first support to watch. EUROSTOXX 50 futures touched a new high Friday at 3620.00, but the price has moved back into its recent range and the contract continues to consolidate. This pause in the bull cycle appears to be a bull flag. If correct, it reinforces current bullish conditions and suggests scope for a stronger recovery towards 3689.00, the Jun 10 high. The key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Initial support is at 3467.00, Jul 18 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a S/T bull cycle following the recent recovery from the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The current consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation and this reinforces bullish conditions. The focus is on 1.0359 next, the Jun 15 low. GBPUSD is consolidating and holding onto its recent gains. An extension would signal potential for a climb towards 1.2227, the 50-day EMA. The recent move lower in USDJPY is still considered corrective and attention is on two key support levels; 134.90, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low, and 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A break of this support zone would signal scope for stronger reversal. The primary uptrend remains intact, 139.39 is the bull trigger, Jul 14 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating. The yellow metal remains in a downtrend and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The bear trigger is $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and key short-term resistance is at $1747.7, the 20-day EMA. In the Oil space, WTI futures trend conditions remain bearish. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA that intersects at $101.62. A continuation lower would open $88.23, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. A break of the 50-day EMA would signal a strong bullish reversal.
  • In the FI space, a short-term bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play. Friday’s gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on 155.27 next, the May 26 high. The trend condition in Gilts remains bullish and Friday’s rally reinforced this theme. The focus is on 118.16, 1.382 projection of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing.
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