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Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Clears 120.00 And The Bond Market Bear Cycle Extends

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis are trading at recent highs. The contract remains above the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4402.23 today. The break of this average has improved the short-term bullish condition and opens 4578.50, the Feb 9 high. A strong reversal from current levels would instead be seen as a bearish warning signal. Initial support is seen at 4336.06, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The contract traded higher last week and price remains at its recent highs. These recent gains have exposed the 50-day EMA, at 3878.10 - a key short-term resistance.
  • In FX, EURUSD has pulled away from last week’s high of 1.1137. Recent price action challenged resistance at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low. The failure to confirm a clear break though reinforces bearish conditions - the trend remains down. Further weakness would open 1.0890, the Mar 9 low and 1.0806, the Mar 7 low and bear trigger. GBPUSD remains in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2954, the 1.764 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing. The bear trigger is 1.3000, the Mar 15 low. Resistance is seen at 1.3228, 20-day EMA where a break would alter the short-term picture. USDJPY has resumed its push higher today. Price has cleared the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high. More importantly though, the USD has also breached the psychological 120.00 handle. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and the focus shifts to 121.04 next, the Feb 2 2016 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating. Short-term conditions remain bearish though following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. Attention is on $1894.3, the 50-day EMA. The broader trend condition is bullish though and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Initial resistance to watch is at $1954.7, the Mar 15 high. A break of the 50-day EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Oil markets have recovered from recent lows and traded higher once again today. WTI sights are on $116.38, 61.8% of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg.
  • In the FI space, yields continue to climb. Bund futures have cleared the 160.00 handle, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This opens 158.84 next, the Oct 22 2018 low (cont). Gilts have breached key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low. This opens 120.00 next and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. The downtrend in Treasuries reumed once again yesterday. The focus is on 122-20, 176.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 climb and 122-00 further out.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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