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Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Continues To Defy Gravity

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintain a bearish tone following recent weakness that resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 4446.83 today and represents initial resistance. The focus is on 4321.07, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to consolidate inside the current range. Price remains below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the short-term outlook is bearish. The focus is on 3626.50, 50.0% of the Mar 7 - 29 rally.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend and last week’s low print of 1.0758 confirmed a resumption of the trend. Support at 1.0806, Mar 7 low, and 1.0767, May 7 2020 low, have also been breached. Attention is on 1.0727 next, the Apr 24 2020 low and bear trigger. GBPUSD remains below 1.3147, the Apr 14 high. The pullback from this high means the pair has failed to remain above the 20-day EMA - a bearish development. The primary trend is down and a break of 1.2974, Apr 13 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This would open 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. USDJPY continues to defy gravity and extend its uptrend, trading to a fresh cycle high above 128.00. The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the bull cycle towards 129.44 next, 0.764 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. The pair is also closing in on the psychological 130.00 handle.
  • On the commodity front, Gold traded higher last week and breached resistance at $1966.1, Mar 24 high. This highlights a range breakout and opens $2001.6 initially, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg. In the Oil space, WTI futures are holding onto the bulk of recent gains, following the recovery from $92.93, Apr 11 low. The contract has also recently found support at levels near the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $98.67 today. A resumption of strength would open $116.64, the Mar 24 high and a key near-term resistance. Initial support lies at the 20-day EMA, at $102.62.
  • Trend conditions in the FI space remain bearish. Bund futures have today resumed the downtrend breaking below last week’s lows and delivering a fresh cycle low. This also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 153.48, 0.50 projection of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing. Gilts have also resumed their downtrend and have traded through the 118.00 handle. The focus is on 117.04, 0.764 projection of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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