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Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Resumes Its Primary Uptrend

OUTLOOK
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis are trading lower again today, marking an extension of the current bear cycle. This reinforces the bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation, with attention on 3902.01 next, 61.8% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16. The EUROSTOXX 50 contract remains bearish and yesterday’s move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has cleared 3526.00, 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally. Note that 3456.00, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A clear break would open 3386.00, the Jul 15 low.
  • In FX, the EURUSD trend direction remains down. A resumption of weakness would open 0.9883 next, 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing. 1.0090, the Aug 26 high is the first resistance. The GBPUSD trend needle still points south and the pair is trading lower again today, retaining the bearish theme. The focus is on 1.1503 next, Mar 24 2020 low. USDJPY short-term conditions are unchanged and remain bullish. The pair has traded higher today and cleared resistance at 139.39, the Jul 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens the 140.00 handle next. On the downside, firm short-term support is seen at 136.54, the 20-day EMA.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards $1700.0 next ahead of $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. In the Oil space, WTI reversed course Tuesday and remains vulnerable. A strong reversal pattern has appeared on the daily chart - a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday. This pattern suggests potential for a stronger sell-off near-term that exposes key support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures are weaker again today as the downtrend extends. The contract has cleared 147.94, 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg. The break reinforces bearish conditions and opens 146.50, the Jun 30 low. Gilts have traded to a fresh trend low again today, reinforcing the current bearish theme. The breach on Tuesday of support at 108.94, Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and the follow through has delivered a break of the 108.00 handle. Sights are on 107.00 next.
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