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Price Volatility in Hungarian Market Surges Following Orban Tax Plan

HUNGARY
  • Implied vol has been surging in the Hungarian markets following Orban’s tax plan, which will use emergency measures for a Ukraine crisis windfall tax on large companies.
  • The tax plan was announced one day after Orban declared a ‘state of emergency’, which will affect banks, telcos, energy, retailers and airlines over a two-year period.
  • Yesterday, the NBH decided to leave its benchmark rate steady at 6.45% (as expected) despite the significant HUF weakness.
  • To the exception of the latest move (due to idiosyncratic Hungarian risk), the HUF has been mostly driven by the renewed geopolitical tensions, therefore surprising the market with another rate hike would not have had any major impact on the forint.
  • Next NBH meeting in on May 31; the central bank is likely to slow down the pace of its tightening cycle on the ‘core’ policy rate (i.e. 50bps), but policymakers will maintain a hawkish tone to limit the HUF depreciation.
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