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Prices Lower On Soft China Data, Reports This Week Should Clarify Outlook

OIL

Oil prices are off today’s lows but are still down on the day. Brent is down 0.3% at $82.54 after falling to $82.26/bbl, while WTI is 0.2% lower at $78.08 after reaching $77.78. The latter has spent a reasonable amount of time below $78 today. With geopolitical tensions easing, markets are focused on fundamentals again and feel uncertain re the outlook. The USD index is slightly stronger.

  • Data from China over the weekend have made oil markets wary re demand prospects. Lending data was disappointing and CPI inflation remained low.
  • On the supply side, attention has shifted to the June 1 OPEC+ meeting where existing output cuts are expected to be extended into H2. Iraq said earlier that it wouldn’t agree to deeper cuts but then later confirmed it would abide with what OPEC+ decides. OPEC and the IEA release monthly reports this week with updated outlooks.
  • Later the Fed’s Mester and Jefferson discuss central bank communications. In terms of data there is just US NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations for April. The Eurogroup meeting is being held and the ECB’s Buch is scheduled to speak. The focus this week will be on Wednesday’s US April CPI release.
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