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Prices Paid Component & BoC Temper Initial Hawkish Moves In Wake Of ISM Services

STIR

Little net movement in FOMC-dated OIS in the time since the ISM services survey hit, with the dovish spillover from the BoC and slight easing in the survey’s prices paid component tempering the initial hawkish move.

  • Our economist notes that the ISM services survey provided a "goldilocks" result in the sense that activity indices were steady/higher even as the prices subindex moderated
  • That leaves 46bp of cuts priced through year end, operating in a 43-47bp range in the time since the data hit.
  • The first 25bp cut remains fully discounted come the end of the November FOMC.
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Little net movement in FOMC-dated OIS in the time since the ISM services survey hit, with the dovish spillover from the BoC and slight easing in the survey’s prices paid component tempering the initial hawkish move.

  • Our economist notes that the ISM services survey provided a "goldilocks" result in the sense that activity indices were steady/higher even as the prices subindex moderated
  • That leaves 46bp of cuts priced through year end, operating in a 43-47bp range in the time since the data hit.
  • The first 25bp cut remains fully discounted come the end of the November FOMC.