Prices Stable At Start Of Week, Tight Trading Ranges

Crude has been in a very narrow range during the APAC session, as holiday trading volumes are thin. Prices are down arund 0.1% with WTI around $80.67/bbl and Brent $85.03. The USD index is 0.2% higher.

• Oil prices are sitting just above the 200-day simple moving average. They remain in a bull cycle and last week WTI broke above key resistance of $81.04, the March 7 high. A clear break of this level would open up $83.04, the January 23 high. Key support is at $75.72, the March 31 high.
• Crude rose over 6% last week following OPEC’s surprise announcement to cut output from May. Supply remains a market concern with the opening of a pipeline between Iraq and Turkey that exports 400kbd stalled as further negotiation is required. Russia also announced that it had reduced production by around 700kbd in March but this doesn’t match other data.
• As well as weekly US inventory data, OPEC+ and the IEA are also scheduled to publish their monthly reports this week, which will be important for gauging the demand and supply outlook.
• Much of Europe is closed today. Later there are only US wholesale inventories for February and the Fed’s Williams participates in a moderated discussion. Wednesday’s US March CPI & FOMC minutes and Friday’s March retail sales are likely to be the focus of the week.